UK’s ecommerce growth rate to be overtaken by 10 EU countries by 2021

Industry

The UK’s ecommerce market is due to grow nearly 10 per cent to hit €231.2 billion (£207.1 billion) in the next three years, but its growth rates will be overtaken by 10 other European countries during that time.

According to new research from JP Morgan the UK’s ecommerce market will maintain its position as Europe’s largest, representing 30 per cent of the EU’s total, but its estimated nine per cent growth will be outpaced by a number of countries including the Czech Republic (16 per cent), Italy (14 per cent), Spain (13.5 per cent).

 

Country e-commerce market size (EUR) Predicted CAGR

(2018 – 2021)

UK 178.5 billion 9%
France 81.7 billion 11%
Germany 73 billion 7%
Spain 30.4 billion 14%
Netherlands 22.5 billion 11%
Italy 21.2 billion 14%
Denmark 15.4 billion 11%
Sweden 12 billion 9%
Norway 10.9 billion 13%
Switzerland 10.1 billion 8%
Belgium 10.1 billion 9%
Poland 9.9 billion 10%
Austria 9.2 billion 8%
Finland 8.5 billion 11%
Ireland 7 billion 9%
Czech Republic 4.4 billion 16%
Portugal 4.3 billion 12%
Luxembourg 0.7 billion 8%

Brexit uncertainty, major public events and market maturity are expected to lead to this growth deceleration, while newer markets like Italy are expected to see growth driven by high levels of cross boarder purchasing and ecommerce investment.

READ MORE: Indonesia has fastest growing ecommerce sector on Earth

Mobile commerce is expected to be the main driver of growth across the EU, expanding 20 per cent per year over the next three years to become an €188.8 billion (£209 billion) market by 2021.

“The UK remains the titan of the European e-commerce space, dwarfing the next largest markets of France and Germany,” JP Morgan’s Ray McDonnell said.

“While the UK’s e-commerce market will remain healthy, this year’s exit from the EU and the maturity of the market may slow that growth somewhat. We expect stronger growth to occur in newer online economies like Italy and the Czech Republic which have the conditions for significant market expansion.”

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