‘Damn lies and statistics’: Why retailers are set to be disappointed by Black Friday

The largest sales holiday in the western retail calendar is fast-approaching, with Black Friday deals being announced left, right and centre. However, there seems to be a bit of trepidation amongst industry professionals as to just how it’s going to play out.

Increased business rates, sky-high inflation and the cost-of-living in general has meant that the usual hype surrounding Black Friday – which this year falls on 24 November – has been significantly more subdued than previous years.

“There are lies, damn lies and statistics – especially when it comes to Black Friday. One thing that’s for sure, however, is that people will be spending a lot less this year than last,” ParcelHero’s David Jinks told Charged.

“Increased household bills and soaring inflation will have a big impact on everyone’s Black Friday spending.”

While ecommerce has largely held its own in the wake of the pandemic, ParcelHero predicts that UK Black Friday sales figures will fall from £4.8 billion to £3.84 billion.

“It’s likely overall spending on Black Friday itself will fall by around 15% to £1.7 billion,” Jinks says, adding that “shoppers are also being far thriftier on the long lead into Black Friday”.

“If spending matches Amazon’s most recent Prime sale results, which was distinctly sub-Prime, big-ticket items such as computers and consoles are also less likely to shift in significant numbers although lower-cost items could still do well,” he says, pointing out that customers will largely be looking to make savings on items they’ve had their eyes on for a while.

“Around 57% of items sold in the most recent Prime event cost £20 or less, according to our analysis.”

Less ‘cash to splash’

Jinks believes that UK businesses also have less incentive to offer significant discounts following Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget wreaking havoc against the pound after his brief stint as chancellor.

“It’s not only that shoppers have less cash to splash, but there will also be less bargains to lure them in. Many traders were ordering their Christmas stock just as Kwarteng launched his now-notorious “KamiKwazi” mini-budget, prompting the pound to plummet against the dollar, the euro and the yen.

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“Therefore, retailers paid significantly more for goods from the US, Europe and Japan than they did in 2021. Consequently, they now have less wiggle room for juicy Black Friday and Cyber Monday discounts to tempt shoppers.”

Black Friday or Black November

The general interest in Black Friday has waned in recent years, initially experiencing a boom in the UK which led to overnight queues and fights over the best deals after it was imported from US retail culture.

Jinks believes that the commercial prospects of this year’s shopping event have been made worse as lacklustre deals fail to inspire customers already battling rising costs and inflation. Black Friday spending fell to £4.85bn in 2021, from a peak of around £6bn in 2020, according to Finder.com.

“The truth is that Black November, as this month is sometimes called, was already on the decline even before this year’s financial crisis,” he says, predicting a further 20% decline in spend this year, with online sales taking the brunt of that hit.

“While ecommerce captured around 37% of the entire retail market at the height of Covid lockdowns, that’s now settled down to around 26% of the entire spend. So 26% of a reduced Black Friday market means a lot of online retailers are going to be disappointed this year.”

World Cup fever

In order to combat the declining interest in the sales holiday, many retailers are introducing sales promotions earlier than usual, using the World Cup in Qatar as a platform to drive sales.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence retail analyst Charles Allen, the coinciding dates of the FIFA World Cup and Black Friday explains why some promotions are starting early, especially across electronics (such as TVs).

“However, there is also a recognition that consumer budgets are stretched so many Black Friday events are starting early to secure a share of the potentially limited spending,” he says.

Planning the timing of Black Friday promotions is crucial and could ultimately be the difference between success and failure, Allen adds.

“Most durable goods promotions around Black Friday are likely to be planned with products and prices secured well in advance. Retailers in these categories have to make a profit at these promotional moments, so promotional planning is a core skill.”

Black Friday and the importance of tech

Integration platform Patchworks’ chief revenue officer Eduardo Silva believes that technology can be pivotal in “pushing the needle” and explains why integration is essential for effective stock management during peak retail periods such as Black Friday.

“At times like this, returns and stock management challenges remain huge for retailers. A retailer’s data is only their gold if it’s fully integrated across all systems and retailers know where their stock is – otherwise it’s worthless.

Silva says it is no longer enough to simply have an integration platform as a service (iPaaS) which connects A to B, or ERP to WMS. He believes that poor stock management is bound to make headlines this Black Friday, ultimately costing businesses in terms of lost revenue and reputation.

“It’s essential that retailers find a flexible and scalable platform that connects all core business applications together – whether that’s an ecommerce platform, warehouse software, ERP, 3PL, or anything in between,” he says.

“New integration platforms can free commerce data, remove barriers and deliver more engaging and connected customer experiences such as wish lists, personalised offers, shared baskets and multiple payment options.

“Brands that harness data across their entire retail estate should expect a record-breaking Black Friday / Cyber Week, using it to make intelligent business critical decisions that will guide customers from social media to the all-important last mile.”

While there will still be some deals out there for shoppers looking to make a saving, it’s fairly unanimous that this year’s pre-Christmas sales boost will really be more of a small bump, with all signs pointing towards the period being far quieter than usual.

It’s not for the want of trying though, with retailers still making a concerted effort to slash prices and attract consumers where they still can, as they look to boost custom as the peak period gets underway.

Of course, how successful they will be is another issue entirely…

EcommerceFeaturesLooking ahead


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